Curious adventures

Joined January 2020
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Last dude’s wife stayed with him after he spent 40 years in prison starting at age 18?
I am granting clemency to 6 people. These individuals have shown remorse, rehabilitation and commitment to their communities. I thank all the volunteer attorneys representing clemency applicants for their dedication and service to justice.
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Cliff I like your framework of retail competition along four dimensions: price, selection, service and convenience. But I feel like “convenience” conflates two separate things: immediacy (where physical retail beats AMZN) and ease of ordering (time b/w thought and buy button)
Alright…. I’ve seen other ppl do this. I have a few min. Ask me anything (except specifics about my investments)
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I don’t understand why containment worked during the Cold War. I get the part where centrally planned economies don’t work, so just let them fail on their own, but why do you have to limit geographic expansion also?
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Search vs. social is defined by whether the advertiser is targeting keywords or demos (interests, age, etc.) The distinction matters for PINS
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Clyde Shelton retweeted
These are the good old days.
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Modern example: the government’s monopoly on the legal use of violence (e.g killing in battle is not murder, and taxation is not theft, if done by a member of gov’t)
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Would be interesting to see @ByrneHobart do a retrospective on WISH
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Annual cohort models are useful for companies that fit two criteria: 1) they report LTM customer metrics, 2) the key drivers (churn/gross adds, purchase frequency, AOV, etc.) are not reported metrics, but you can make reasonable assumptions cuz mgmt comments on them occasionally
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The edge here is two-fold: 1) the sellside (and most of the buyside I think) only builds models off metrics that are reported every quarter (or every year at least) ...
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And 2) Sometimes you can develop pretty high conviction views on key metrics vs. consensus a few quarters before it shows up in the numbers, so you beat the data monkeys to the punch - e.g. "Sometime in '22 this company is likely to start missing on GMV" ...
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The downside is that you don't know exactly when it'll happen, so you do need to monitor the 3p data - but when the data *does* start to look better/worse than consensus calls for, you have more conviction that it's a true break from trend, not just a temporary blip.
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Note: If there's some key variable in your model that mgmt hasn't commented on (e.g. how different was Year 2 retention of the '20 cohort relative to prior cohorts?) you can use alt data to help answer it
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"We fiercely dislike Mexico's soccer team, right, and we're fierce competitors and we want to win every time on the field,'' Berhalter said. Love this attitude. Watch out for Team USA in '22. espn.com/soccer/united-state…
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Clyde Shelton retweeted
CALLED IT!!!!
Meta.com redirects to Meta.org, a Chan Zuckerberg Initiative
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Time for the Saturday walk to the office - accompanied by the Lightshed podcast @RichLightShed @BrandoLightShed @WaltLightShed Let’s see if Greenfield can keep the animals in check this week
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