U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, 📈 data, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
Fact: across AL, LA, MS & SC, Black voters are 28% of the population but wield power in just 17% of seats. The biggest obstacle to minority voting strength in the South isn't new voting restrictions. It's overpacking. My debut for @TheAtlantic. theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
With perhaps one exception, House Republicans do not appear to be here for a quorum call in the Oregon House. That would mean no quorum, no ability for the House to vote on Democrats' redistricting plans.
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New: the “compromise” map the OR legislature could reportedly consider today would put Bend in Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)’s #OR05 instead of #OR03 and still protect #OR04 Rep. Peter DeFazio (D). 4D-1R-1C.
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By my calculation, Schrader's #OR05 (Biden +9 in '20) would get about two points more R, whereas under the Dem proposal it would've gotten a few points more Dem. The new #OR06 would still be a Biden +10 seat. Most likely outcome still 5D-1R, but slightly less safe.
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A key reason Dems might take this deal: even Schrader would be getting a slightly less blue #OR05, he'd be picking up the fastest Dem-trending place in the state: Bend. The bet is that this would *become* a solid 5D-1R map over the course of the decade.
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Oregon lawmakers are considering a new congressional districts map today, which one person knowledgeable of the situation says could be a 4-1-1 map (D competitive R). Democrats have insisted on a 5-1 map with no changes throughout the process. oregonlegislature.gov/redist…
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The Nebraska compromise! Omaha is kept whole like Dems want, but Rs get rural Saunders Co. added to Rep. Don Bacon's (R) #NE02. Biden '20 margin in #NE02 would fall from +7 to +6. Advances legislature 38-8. omaha.com/news/state-and-reg…
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The race is on: will Nebraska be the first state to finalize a new congressional map? P.S. correction: passes legislature 36-10, per @OWHnews.
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New @CookPolitical: redistricting updates in Colorado, Maine & Oregon. cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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Maine's bipartisan redistricting committee appears to arrived at a deal to shift Augusta from #ME01 to #ME02, which would reduce Trump's 2020 margin in Rep. Jared Golden (D)'s seat from 7.5 pts to 6.1 pts ahead of a tough 2022 race. legislature.maine.gov/doc/71…
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
It’s a cool dunk…if you don’t know that this is the first time New York Democrats have controlled redistricting since 1913.
I am gaping in awe at the notion that New York's Democratic Party has never considered gerrymandering before.
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Remember when Dems were complaining about the preliminary CO map draft that came out in June? Right now they'd take that map in a heartbeat - 5/8 seats were Biden +10 or more! politico.com/news/2021/06/23…
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Topline: under any of the three drafts, #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) would likely be fine and Rs would have a good chance to win up to 4/8 seats, though they'd have the toughest time reaching parity on the second plan (where 5/8 seats are Biden +5 or more).
Colorado's independent redistricting commission dropped their 3rd draft (left) of Congressional lines today. It looks quite similar to their 2nd (right), with the new #CO08 district getting a bit more of Adams (Biden +16.7) and Weld County (Trump +18.1). Final map deadline 9/28.
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Also, all three of these proposals needlessly split counties/localities and are generally just weirder than you'd expect from a commission.
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Binders? Hey, those are almanacs (cc: @The_Almanac).
Books. Binders. Brick. Backpacks. Major points for the Swag. Small plant/succulent. 9/10 @Redistrict
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The only CBC member I spoke with who expressed opposition to unpacking a lot of hyper-Black districts in the South? #MS02 Rep. Bennie Thompson. theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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Thank you @RedistrictNet for tracking the latest developments from state to state. Worth a follow.
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